Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 07 2021 | 10767 | 46180 | 343 | 101 | 292 | 417 |
| February 08 2021 | 10782 | 46255 | 343 | 101 | 284 | 412 |
| February 09 2021 | 10788 | 46377 | 344 | 104 | 258 | 399 |
| February 10 2021 | 10798 | 46475 | 345 | 104 | 244 | 344 |
| February 11 2021 | 10815 | 46592 | 345 | 104 | 232 | 340 |
| February 12 2021 | 10826 | 46665 | 346 | 104 | 229 | 328 |
| February 13 2021 | 10837 | 46765 | 346 | 104 | 200 | 307 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.3 | 10% | 20 | 0.17% | 25 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.9 | 8% | 16 | 0.12% | 35 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 3.7 | 29% | 58 | 0.28% | 91 | 0.43% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.9 | 13.5% | 27 | 0.2% | 42 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.7 | 9.5% | 19 | 0.18% | 30 | 0.29% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.0 | 9.5% | 19 | 0.15% | 27 | 0.22% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.4 | 9% | 18 | 0.16% | 25 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | -1 | 1.6 | 11.5% | 23 | 0.22% | 32 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 11 | 13.4 | 100% | 200 | 0.19% | 307 | 0.29% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 07 2021 | 6910 | 27245 | 210 | 86 | 141 | 229 |
| February 08 2021 | 6917 | 27274 | 211 | 86 | 130 | 224 |
| February 09 2021 | 6922 | 27317 | 212 | 86 | 121 | 212 |
| February 10 2021 | 6932 | 27372 | 213 | 87 | 110 | 195 |
| February 11 2021 | 6944 | 27456 | 213 | 87 | 111 | 175 |
| February 12 2021 | 6954 | 27512 | 214 | 87 | 121 | 167 |
| February 13 2021 | 6961 | 27571 | 214 | 88 | 98 | 160 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.1% | 5 | 0.06% | 9 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.4 | 21.4% | 21 | 0.25% | 27 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.9 | 15.3% | 15 | 0.21% | 26 | 0.37% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 0.9 | 8.2% | 8 | 0.1% | 16 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.4 | 16.3% | 16 | 0.21% | 25 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.3 | 16.3% | 16 | 0.16% | 27 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 6.1% | 6 | 0.07% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.7 | 11.2% | 11 | 0.15% | 17 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 7 | 8.4 | 100% | 98 | 0.15% | 160 | 0.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 07 2021 | 5188 | 18177 | 221 | 72 | 101 | 164 |
| February 08 2021 | 5192 | 18195 | 221 | 72 | 84 | 156 |
| February 09 2021 | 5195 | 18209 | 223 | 73 | 73 | 152 |
| February 10 2021 | 5205 | 18255 | 225 | 74 | 71 | 146 |
| February 11 2021 | 5217 | 18290 | 225 | 74 | 83 | 130 |
| February 12 2021 | 5225 | 18319 | 225 | 74 | 90 | 117 |
| February 13 2021 | 5236 | 18352 | 227 | 74 | 89 | 114 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 5.6% | 5 | 0.09% | 6 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.4 | 14.6% | 13 | 0.24% | 14 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 0.7 | 12.4% | 11 | 0.24% | 15 | 0.33% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.6% | 5 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.9 | 12.4% | 11 | 0.22% | 15 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.9 | 13.5% | 12 | 0.18% | 17 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1.6 | 16.9% | 15 | 0.24% | 19 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.1 | 19.1% | 17 | 0.27% | 19 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 11 | 7.6 | 100% | 89 | 0.2% | 114 | 0.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 07 2021 | 11905 | 49965 | 341 | 74 | 402 | 606 |
| February 08 2021 | 11918 | 50045 | 341 | 74 | 271 | 536 |
| February 09 2021 | 11945 | 50154 | 343 | 75 | 258 | 528 |
| February 10 2021 | 11979 | 50369 | 347 | 75 | 251 | 521 |
| February 11 2021 | 11996 | 50514 | 339 | 75 | 243 | 493 |
| February 12 2021 | 12008 | 50660 | 339 | 75 | 234 | 361 |
| February 13 2021 | 12012 | 50757 | 340 | 75 | 197 | 325 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.1 | 4.1% | 8 | 0.07% | 21 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.0 | 15.7% | 31 | 0.19% | 47 | 0.28% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.3 | 20.3% | 40 | 0.19% | 58 | 0.27% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 3.1 | 16.2% | 32 | 0.24% | 60 | 0.44% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 2.4 | 14.2% | 28 | 0.21% | 43 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 2.0 | 11.7% | 23 | 0.16% | 37 | 0.26% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.7 | 9.6% | 19 | 0.13% | 34 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.3 | 8.1% | 16 | 0.12% | 25 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 4 | 17.0 | 100% | 197 | 0.17% | 325 | 0.27% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 07 2021 | 38669 | 314788 | 1172 | 256 | 1069 | 1476 |
| February 08 2021 | 38768 | 315252 | 1176 | 256 | 1061 | 1483 |
| February 09 2021 | 38807 | 315494 | 1181 | 264 | 959 | 1455 |
| February 10 2021 | 38906 | 315853 | 1182 | 264 | 957 | 1510 |
| February 11 2021 | 39039 | 316434 | 1183 | 264 | 1019 | 1439 |
| February 12 2021 | 39124 | 316911 | 1186 | 264 | 1039 | 1417 |
| February 13 2021 | 39212 | 316900 | 1191 | 264 | 1048 | 1364 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 3.3 | 4.4% | 46 | 0.08% | 59 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 23.0 | 26.5% | 278 | 0.39% | 344 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 28.4 | 30.3% | 318 | 0.31% | 416 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 10.3 | 10.8% | 113 | 0.15% | 151 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 9.9 | 10.5% | 110 | 0.17% | 136 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 7.9 | 10% | 105 | 0.16% | 135 | 0.21% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.7 | 3.3% | 35 | 0.06% | 67 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.7 | 4.1% | 43 | 0.09% | 56 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 88 | 89.1 | 100% | 1048 | 0.19% | 1364 | 0.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 07 2021 | 549826 | 2534922 | 24885 | 6054 | 11478 | 16855 |
| February 08 2021 | 550369 | 2538097 | 24919 | 6055 | 10454 | 16452 |
| February 09 2021 | 551050 | 2541584 | 25021 | 6094 | 9642 | 15832 |
| February 10 2021 | 551871 | 2546576 | 25090 | 6129 | 9456 | 15325 |
| February 11 2021 | 553110 | 2552481 | 25142 | 6140 | 9945 | 14762 |
| February 12 2021 | 554048 | 2557088 | 25197 | 6151 | 9788 | 14133 |
| February 13 2021 | 554800 | 2560840 | 25268 | 6161 | 9363 | 13392 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 43 | 50.4 | 6.2% | 585 | 0.09% | 847 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 98 | 119.9 | 14.9% | 1399 | 0.18% | 1952 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 124 | 132.3 | 16.4% | 1536 | 0.2% | 2159 | 0.29% |
| 30-39 | 110 | 116.4 | 14.2% | 1333 | 0.18% | 1915 | 0.25% |
| 40-49 | 119 | 105.7 | 13.3% | 1243 | 0.18% | 1805 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 104 | 122.3 | 14.7% | 1374 | 0.17% | 1942 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 80 | 85.1 | 10.8% | 1011 | 0.13% | 1483 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 74 | 74.3 | 9.4% | 882 | 0.14% | 1289 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 752 | 806.4 | 100% | 9363 | 0.16% | 13392 | 0.23% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.3 | 25.7 | 43.5 | 13.4 | 29.7 | 12.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.7 | 8.4 | 17.6 | 13.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.2 | 7.6 | 13.1 | 21.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.5 | 28.4 | 27.3 | 17 | 51 | 12.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.9 | 48.4 | 40 | 89.1 | 104.7 | 19.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 25.8 | 28.5 | 806.4 | 1291.7 | 15.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.63 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5268"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges