Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 07 2021 10767 46180 343 101 292 417
February 08 2021 10782 46255 343 101 284 412
February 09 2021 10788 46377 344 104 258 399
February 10 2021 10798 46475 345 104 244 344
February 11 2021 10815 46592 345 104 232 340
February 12 2021 10826 46665 346 104 229 328
February 13 2021 10837 46765 346 104 200 307
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 1.3 10% 20 0.17% 25 0.22%
10-19 0 0.9 8% 16 0.12% 35 0.26%
20-29 3 3.7 29% 58 0.28% 91 0.43%
30-39 2 1.9 13.5% 27 0.2% 42 0.31%
40-49 0 0.7 9.5% 19 0.18% 30 0.29%
50-59 2 2.0 9.5% 19 0.15% 27 0.22%
60-69 2 1.4 9% 18 0.16% 25 0.22%
70+ -1 1.6 11.5% 23 0.22% 32 0.31%
All ages 11 13.4 100% 200 0.19% 307 0.29%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 07 2021 6910 27245 210 86 141 229
February 08 2021 6917 27274 211 86 130 224
February 09 2021 6922 27317 212 86 121 212
February 10 2021 6932 27372 213 87 110 195
February 11 2021 6944 27456 213 87 111 175
February 12 2021 6954 27512 214 87 121 167
February 13 2021 6961 27571 214 88 98 160
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 5.1% 5 0.06% 9 0.12%
10-19 2 1.4 21.4% 21 0.25% 27 0.32%
20-29 0 1.9 15.3% 15 0.21% 26 0.37%
30-39 2 0.9 8.2% 8 0.1% 16 0.19%
40-49 1 1.4 16.3% 16 0.21% 25 0.32%
50-59 2 1.3 16.3% 16 0.16% 27 0.28%
60-69 0 0.4 6.1% 6 0.07% 13 0.15%
70+ 0 0.7 11.2% 11 0.15% 17 0.24%
All ages 7 8.4 100% 98 0.15% 160 0.25%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 07 2021 5188 18177 221 72 101 164
February 08 2021 5192 18195 221 72 84 156
February 09 2021 5195 18209 223 73 73 152
February 10 2021 5205 18255 225 74 71 146
February 11 2021 5217 18290 225 74 83 130
February 12 2021 5225 18319 225 74 90 117
February 13 2021 5236 18352 227 74 89 114
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.6 5.6% 5 0.09% 6 0.11%
10-19 0 1.4 14.6% 13 0.24% 14 0.26%
20-29 3 0.7 12.4% 11 0.24% 15 0.33%
30-39 0 0.4 5.6% 5 0.09% 9 0.17%
40-49 1 0.9 12.4% 11 0.22% 15 0.3%
50-59 0 0.9 13.5% 12 0.18% 17 0.25%
60-69 4 1.6 16.9% 15 0.24% 19 0.3%
70+ 3 1.1 19.1% 17 0.27% 19 0.3%
All ages 11 7.6 100% 89 0.2% 114 0.25%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 07 2021 11905 49965 341 74 402 606
February 08 2021 11918 50045 341 74 271 536
February 09 2021 11945 50154 343 75 258 528
February 10 2021 11979 50369 347 75 251 521
February 11 2021 11996 50514 339 75 243 493
February 12 2021 12008 50660 339 75 234 361
February 13 2021 12012 50757 340 75 197 325
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.1 4.1% 8 0.07% 21 0.18%
10-19 0 3.0 15.7% 31 0.19% 47 0.28%
20-29 1 2.3 20.3% 40 0.19% 58 0.27%
30-39 0 3.1 16.2% 32 0.24% 60 0.44%
40-49 0 2.4 14.2% 28 0.21% 43 0.32%
50-59 0 2.0 11.7% 23 0.16% 37 0.26%
60-69 1 1.7 9.6% 19 0.13% 34 0.24%
70+ 0 1.3 8.1% 16 0.12% 25 0.19%
All ages 4 17.0 100% 197 0.17% 325 0.27%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 07 2021 38669 314788 1172 256 1069 1476
February 08 2021 38768 315252 1176 256 1061 1483
February 09 2021 38807 315494 1181 264 959 1455
February 10 2021 38906 315853 1182 264 957 1510
February 11 2021 39039 316434 1183 264 1019 1439
February 12 2021 39124 316911 1186 264 1039 1417
February 13 2021 39212 316900 1191 264 1048 1364
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 7 3.3 4.4% 46 0.08% 59 0.1%
10-19 15 23.0 26.5% 278 0.39% 344 0.48%
20-29 19 28.4 30.3% 318 0.31% 416 0.4%
30-39 10 10.3 10.8% 113 0.15% 151 0.2%
40-49 18 9.9 10.5% 110 0.17% 136 0.21%
50-59 14 7.9 10% 105 0.16% 135 0.21%
60-69 2 2.7 3.3% 35 0.06% 67 0.12%
70+ 3 3.7 4.1% 43 0.09% 56 0.11%
All ages 88 89.1 100% 1048 0.19% 1364 0.25%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 07 2021 549826 2534922 24885 6054 11478 16855
February 08 2021 550369 2538097 24919 6055 10454 16452
February 09 2021 551050 2541584 25021 6094 9642 15832
February 10 2021 551871 2546576 25090 6129 9456 15325
February 11 2021 553110 2552481 25142 6140 9945 14762
February 12 2021 554048 2557088 25197 6151 9788 14133
February 13 2021 554800 2560840 25268 6161 9363 13392
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 43 50.4 6.2% 585 0.09% 847 0.13%
10-19 98 119.9 14.9% 1399 0.18% 1952 0.26%
20-29 124 132.3 16.4% 1536 0.2% 2159 0.29%
30-39 110 116.4 14.2% 1333 0.18% 1915 0.25%
40-49 119 105.7 13.3% 1243 0.18% 1805 0.26%
50-59 104 122.3 14.7% 1374 0.17% 1942 0.24%
60-69 80 85.1 10.8% 1011 0.13% 1483 0.2%
70+ 74 74.3 9.4% 882 0.14% 1289 0.2%
All ages 752 806.4 100% 9363 0.16% 13392 0.23%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
29.3 25.7 43.5 13.4 29.7 12.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
24.7 8.4 17.6 13.4%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
25.2 7.6 13.1 21.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
27.5 28.4 27.3 17 51 12.1%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
24.9 48.4 40 89.1 104.7 19.6%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
23 25.8 28.5 806.4 1291.7 15.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.63 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5268"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red